When Helene hit Florida, it was at its most powerful and by the time it arrived points north, it had been downgraded, but it was still damaging rain-wise.
Some, undoubtedly, is familiarity with what to do in event of hurricane. But I have to wonder, looking at the map, whether some of it is normalization, in the math sense. For instance, you could divide the deaths by the land area affected (perhaps using a further normalization of volume of water dropped), or average population per square mile in the storm track.
We had several days of rain before Helene hit, so the ground in the mountains was already saturated. Then, many places in the mountains got 15" of rain dumped on them. These mountains haven't seen anything like this 1000 year storm in recorded history. The topography of the mountains has been changed. There are NO roads that survived running from my town on the Tennessee state line into Western North Carolina. We are doing well, because of our preparations, but I know people who live completely off grid, but either were away and trapped at the base of their mountain, or are trapped on the mountain because most of the roads are simply gone. There are many people who aren't waiting to be "rescued". They're cutting their own routes in and out.
There's no prior experience here with a storm like this. After the rain stopped, the water continued to rush downhill, and the high winds started. That took out trees in swathes, further loosening the ground and contributing to the landslides. Entire mountain towns were literally wiped off the map with nothing but a debris field to show that they were there.
But the people here are strong and determined. Rebuilding has already begun, and even though it's going to take years to recover, we will.
Actually, it has happened there in recorded history, just not within the memory of most people alive today. A similar storm (except that it came from the east instead of the south) pretty much washed Ashville away in the early 1900's.
That doesn't minimize the scope of the disaster this time, nor diminish the suffering of the victims of this one, but the fact is that things like this have happened in the past and will happen again in the future.
"Rebuilding has already begun, and even though it's going to take years to recover, we will."
And that's the spirit and sentiment that matters. You are not defined by your setbacks in life, no matter how devastating. You are defined by what you do after those setbacks.
I suspect one factor is topography. In flat land like Florida you get inundation, and you have the strong winds of the hurricane. What you don't get is mudslides, or raging rivers. In hill country, you do get those things. It only takes a surprisingly small amount of river flooding in hilly terrain to carry away hillsides, roads, and houses. I remember a case a year or so ago in Leominster, MA (or Fitchburg? I forget) where what to the rest of us was just an ordinary thunderstorm happened to concentrate a lot of water right there. "A lot" means 6 to 8 inches or so, no more than that. It was plenty to wash away some roads and buildings. Not on the scale that NC saw, not even close, but if you were there it was a major thing.
One thing that struck me in some of the reporting was mention of "no communications". That included "no cell service". I wonder how that happens, and whether the various organizations that run those systems will learn from it. It also brings to mind the Ham Radio motto of "if all else fails" -- meaning hams can communicate better in disaster situations like that because they don't depend on infrastructure. Some ham radio systems do, but a lot do not: if you have a radio and a car battery you can communicate. There is an "amateur radio emergency service" organization to do that in a structured way and work with government agencies for situations just like this.
Some, undoubtedly, is familiarity with what to do in event of hurricane. But I have to wonder, looking at the map, whether some of it is normalization, in the math sense. For instance, you could divide the deaths by the land area affected (perhaps using a further normalization of volume of water dropped), or average population per square mile in the storm track.
We had several days of rain before Helene hit, so the ground in the mountains was already saturated. Then, many places in the mountains got 15" of rain dumped on them. These mountains haven't seen anything like this 1000 year storm in recorded history. The topography of the mountains has been changed. There are NO roads that survived running from my town on the Tennessee state line into Western North Carolina. We are doing well, because of our preparations, but I know people who live completely off grid, but either were away and trapped at the base of their mountain, or are trapped on the mountain because most of the roads are simply gone. There are many people who aren't waiting to be "rescued". They're cutting their own routes in and out.
There's no prior experience here with a storm like this. After the rain stopped, the water continued to rush downhill, and the high winds started. That took out trees in swathes, further loosening the ground and contributing to the landslides. Entire mountain towns were literally wiped off the map with nothing but a debris field to show that they were there.
But the people here are strong and determined. Rebuilding has already begun, and even though it's going to take years to recover, we will.
ScottTN
Actually, it has happened there in recorded history, just not within the memory of most people alive today. A similar storm (except that it came from the east instead of the south) pretty much washed Ashville away in the early 1900's.
That doesn't minimize the scope of the disaster this time, nor diminish the suffering of the victims of this one, but the fact is that things like this have happened in the past and will happen again in the future.
"Rebuilding has already begun, and even though it's going to take years to recover, we will."
And that's the spirit and sentiment that matters. You are not defined by your setbacks in life, no matter how devastating. You are defined by what you do after those setbacks.
I suspect one factor is topography. In flat land like Florida you get inundation, and you have the strong winds of the hurricane. What you don't get is mudslides, or raging rivers. In hill country, you do get those things. It only takes a surprisingly small amount of river flooding in hilly terrain to carry away hillsides, roads, and houses. I remember a case a year or so ago in Leominster, MA (or Fitchburg? I forget) where what to the rest of us was just an ordinary thunderstorm happened to concentrate a lot of water right there. "A lot" means 6 to 8 inches or so, no more than that. It was plenty to wash away some roads and buildings. Not on the scale that NC saw, not even close, but if you were there it was a major thing.
One thing that struck me in some of the reporting was mention of "no communications". That included "no cell service". I wonder how that happens, and whether the various organizations that run those systems will learn from it. It also brings to mind the Ham Radio motto of "if all else fails" -- meaning hams can communicate better in disaster situations like that because they don't depend on infrastructure. Some ham radio systems do, but a lot do not: if you have a radio and a car battery you can communicate. There is an "amateur radio emergency service" organization to do that in a structured way and work with government agencies for situations just like this.